With this action, NASA is providing some security to private space station operators that at least one provider will be available, although the lack of competition raises some pricing concerns. Will Boeing be a considerate monopolist?
Not all bad for Blue
NASA does potentially have one other option. Although it has said little publicly, Blue Origin has had a dedicated team working on a crewed “Space Vehicle” for several years that will launch on its New Glenn rocket. According to sources familiar with the program, design work on this vehicle is well advanced along with demonstration work such as cabin pressure-vessel manufacturing, extensive parachute testing, in-house thermal protection system testing, life support systems, and more.
The space agency could have opened a new competition to Boeing, Blue Origin, and possibly other wild cards, such as The Exploration Company, for crewed missions in the 2030s. It appears the agency had no appetite for this and its associated costs, though, so soon after the Commercial Crew competition a decade ago.
Nevertheless, the potential to fly Starliner on Blue Origin’s New Glenn is real—and potentially valuable to the company beyond launch contracts.
Were Boeing to decide to fly Starliner on New Glenn, it would essentially give Blue Origin a “free” certification of its rocket for human missions, which can be a costly and time-consuming process. Boeing and NASA would also need to build a crew launch arm and other facilities for human missions, which Blue Origin could also use for its Space Vehicle in the future.
As commercial space station providers look to control costs, the more powerful New Glenn rocket may also have another benefit. It could potentially launch both a crewed spacecraft and a cargo vehicle, such as Northrop’s Cygnus, into orbit at the same time, saving launch costs. It is not clear that Vulcan would have this dual-payload capability.