Tesla made it clear this week — the Cybercab has begun production. But how quickly will the self-driving taxis be produced, and how many will the company make?
On Thursday, Tesla posted on CEO Elon Musk’s social media site X, stating, “Cybercab in production now at Giga Texas,” referring to a Tesla factory near Austin, Texas. The post shows a gleaming Cybercab rolling out of the factory and onto the streets. Then came another X post from the Tesla Robotaxi account that showed a video of a row of identical Cybercabs merging onto a highway.
It’s been two months since the first Cybercab was produced, and more than a year and a half since Tesla launched its first autonomous Robotaxi vehicle in October 2024. At the time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the production goal was 2 million Cybercabs per year, or about 38,000 per week.
The world’s richest person was much more tempered in his aspirations during this week’s Tesla earnings call for the first quarter of the year. Musk said that the early stages of Cybercab production will be “very slow” because of the time required to organize the supply chain and production. He said production would continue “ramping up” and eventually “(go) exponential,” but added the caveat, “to the best of our ability.”
Musk said, “The limiting factor for expansion is really rigorous validation, making sure things are completely safe. We don’t want to have a single accidental injury with the expansion of Robotaxi.”
A Tesla representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The NHTSA is investigating 3.2 million Tesla vehicles with Full Self-Driving driver-assistance, citing concerns that Tesla’s camera-based system failed to detect common road conditions that led to several accidents. Tesla says its Full Self-Driving system allows a vehicle to steer, brake and accelerate automatically while a human is in the driver’s seat. The person can intervene instantly if needed.
Currently, Tesla operates a limited Robotaxi service in three Texas cities — Dallas, Houston and Austin — with its Model Y. Those vehicles are autonomous but do have a steering wheel and pedals. The company plans to eventually fill its entire fleet, in Texas and elsewhere in the US, with Cybercabs, which might not have a steering wheel or pedals.
The global driverless taxi market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 99%, reaching an estimated $147 billion by 2033, according to research firm Grand View Research. In the US, Waymo — owned by Google parent Alphabet — dominates with services in 10 major US cities, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Phoenix. Zoox, owned by Amazon, operates in Las Vegas and San Francisco and plans to add Austin and Miami to its roster.
Tesla is far behind the competition
Tesla has a mountain to climb to catch up to its ride-hailing competitors, says CNET senior writer Abrar Al-Heeti, who once took a ride in a retrofitted self-driving Tesla in Vegas.
“It’s a highly competitive market that moves fast,” Al-Heeti said. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty and trepidation around Elon Musk’s approach to having the Cybercab rely solely on cameras for navigation, rather than a combination of cameras, lidar and radar like Tesla’s competitors.”
Autonomous vehicles currently rely on three major technologies to determine their surroundings — cameras, lidar and radar. Waymo and Cruise rely on lidar, or “light detection and ranging,” which creates three-dimensional pictures of the car’s surroundings. Radar, which has been around since World War II, uses radio waves that bounce off objects to determine their location.
Driverless ride-hailing cars are still a relatively niche market, but Al-Heeti says they could eventually dominate the taxi industry, though it may take several years.
“There are still many hurdles from a logistical, technical and regulatory standpoint,” Al-Heeti says. “Not to mention the wariness of many riders and drivers who aren’t yet convinced autonomous rides are the safest or most practical option.”