“We’re working with law enforcement on their investigation,” Google said in a statement provided to Ars. “The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.”
Between October 15, 2025, and December 4, 2025, “Spagnuolo’s AlphaRaccoon account risked approximately $2,754,092 on approximately 25 Google Year in Search 2025 outcomes that the market treated as unlikely,” the US complaint said.
Spagnuolo’s bets included $937,688 on the “No” side of “Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?”; $613,587 on the “No” side of “Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?”; $509,149 on the “No” side of “Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?”; and $171,612 on the “No” side of “Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?”
The AlphaRaccoon account also made bets related to Zohran Mamdani, Kendrick Lamar, Jimmy Kimmel, d4vd, Sydney Sweeney, Tyler Robinson, Charlie Kirk, Luigi Mangione, Elon Musk, Taylor Swift, Squid Game, and Andy Byron. AlphaRaccoon’s winning bets did not go unnoticed by people who watch prediction markets.
“In or about early December 2025, after Discord and X communities discussed AlphaRaccoon, and speculated its user was a Google insider, the ‘AlphaRaccoon’ username was removed from the Polymarket account, reverting the username to an alphanumeric wallet address,” the US complaint said.
Spagnuolo won bets “with near-perfect accuracy”
Spagnuolo was also charged in a civil complaint by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The criminal and civil complaints were both filed in US District Court for the Southern District of New York. Spagnuolo made at least 23 bets on “Yes” or “No” shares and won “with near-perfect accuracy,” the CFTC complaint against Spagnuolo said.